The strong variations in the prices of the free dollars, the rising inflation and the change in the rates of the fixed terms generate that the savers “recalculate” conservative instruments, where to place their surplus pesosso as not to lose purchasing power and try to earn as much money as possible.
In this context, iProfesional compared which were the more profitable alternatives between the purchase of different types of dollars (solidarity, MEP and blue), bank deposits over a period of time and the acquisition of shares and bitcoin.
Above all, the objective is to know how much the investor earned with each of these proposals with a initial capital of $100,000, both in the first 7 months of 2022 as well as in the accumulated achieved from the beginning of 2021 to the present.
Regarding the purchase of dollars, it should be emphasized that in the official market the exchange rate is becoming more restrictive and it is only allowed to acquire a maximum of US$200 per month, which today is equivalent to a minimum of $46,000 at the “solidarity” value, which is the official price plus taxes, of around $230 in banks and exchange houses.
This value was greatly relegated after the strong rise in prices that was recorded in the free segment in the last two months, since in June they rose almost 20% and in July around 17%. Thus, the blue, the Stock Market (MEP) and the cash with liquidation closed July around $300although throughout the past month they touched $350.
Also taken into account were fixed terms in pesos traditional at 30 days, and the UVA, which are at 90 days and adjusted for inflation. Also The Merval index of shares of leading companies listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange was analyzed, which ended July with an increase of more than 40%. Finally, Bitcoin was taken into account, which advanced about 18% in the last month.
In the first 7 months of 2022, the most profitable investment was the informal dollar, which made it possible to increase the $100,000 by $47,500 more.
Savings: the dollar rebounded as an alternative (despite the latest drop)
Thanks to the exchange rate hike in recent months, only ehe informal dollar came to beat the accumulated inflation throughout 2022.
In this way, the saver who achieved the most income with those $100,000 was the one who bought blue in January, because he earned a total amount of $147,525 in the accumulated amount for the year. That is to say, she obtained an extra money of $47,525 in 7 months.
This despite the fact that in last week of the month the dollar lost 15% from the maximum price that it reached in that period, due to the announcements of changes in the Cabinet.
“With $100,000 placed from January to the end of July, the small investor should account for an amount close to $147,000 to maintain your purchasing powerif it is updated with inflation,” he tells iProfesional Andres Mendezdirector of AMF Economy.
He adds: “Without a doubt, July was a good month for those assets linked to foreign assets and/or entrepreneurs, and ‘punished’ income in pesos: fixed terms lost against the acceleration of inflation and also as a protection hedge against the depreciation of the domestic currency. In fact, they got only half of what they would have needed to ‘match’ the price hike.”
Second, the most profitable investment was the purchase of leading shares, since in the first 7 months the Merval provided $145,400, for an initial capital in January of $100,000. And, in third place, in all of 2022 the most profitable instrument was the MEP dollar, or Stock Market, which accumulated until the end of July a rent of $142,600, with the initial amount of the example.
For the saver who invested $100 at the beginning of the year, in July he earned more with the Merval, which granted more than $42,000 that month alone.
In the month, shares, blue dollar and Bitcoin
For that saver who invested $100,000 last January, the profits obtained last July were very attractive. Especially with the great winner of the month, which was Merval, because in that period alone he won $42,000..
Second, the blue dollar was the most profitable alternative last month, where it generated $29,000 with the original capital mentioned. And bitcoin completed the podium, because it generated $23,000 in July.
The stock market dollars also exceeded the inflation of the last month, that is, the counted with liquidation and the MEP.
Winning investments from 2021 to now
If the analysis is transferred to a saver who invested $100,000 at the beginning of last year, the results show that no investment could outpace inflation in the last 19 months.
From the beginning of 2021 to the end of July, no investment could beat the march of accumulated inflation in that period.
“Only UVA fixed terms, which replicate the rise in the CPI 45 days late, approached the demands posed by the inflationary processby providing a total of $214,000 from the beginning of 2021 until the end of July,” Méndez details.
Then, in the result of the last 19 months, the stock market dollars were the ones that gave the most income with the initial $100,000, since currently they add up to $206,000 in cash with liquidation and $198,700 in the MEP.
Outlook for the dollar and fixed term for August
In a very uncertain environment after the political changes in the Cabinetand due to worrying variables in the economy, such as the shortage of reserves, all attention will be focused on the dollar and financial assets.
“If the results of June anticipated the vigorous performance of the financial dollars in July, the evolution of the last week of the last month could be marking a weakening of US currency quotes”Mendez warns.
In this context, it notes that the global concern about inflation continues to weigh on risky assets, including the Argentine, who after the “summer at the end of last month can resume their bullish career” in the rest of 2022.
“Changes in economic policy will be the judge and part of the steps they take in the coming weeks or months,” Mendez concludes.
Meanwhile, the pace of such high inflation will determine the attractiveness, or not, of traditional fixed terms.
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